As I’d hoped, the losing session that I endured Sunday night was a one-time event. Or to be more accurate, it didn’t turn into a back-to-back, because no way am I ever going to not ever lose at a poker session again. It’s going to happen, guaranteed. It is the nature of the beast.
But I want to use two hands to illustrate the vagaries of the game, demonstrate how the randomness can generate significant swings on a micro level, even though good decision-making ends up driving profitability on a macro level.
One gernally accepted tenet of limit poker, especially more passive games, where raises preflop don’t occur that often, and three bets are rare indeed, is that it is almost always correct to call the opening bet, or even a raise, with about any pocket pair. Both the direct and the implied odds, where you’ll flop a set about 1 in 8 times and will usually have that set hold up at showdown, suggest that this is the most profitable play. I’ve not always stuck to that–I sometimes fold small pairs in late position when a strong or passive player raises from early position and there are few, if any, callers–but I’ve been changing my game to call a lot more often with pairs, even to a raise.
In the generally passive games that are my favorite, even a raise will get lots of callers. And not just callers who have limped in and simply add one more bet. I’ve found that an early position raiser will often get not one, not two, not even three, but four or more cold-callers. This tendency makes for large pots on the flop.
I was in one of those nice games last night and was already up a couple of hundred dollars when I found pocket 2s under the gun. I called, as did most of the rest of the table. The big blind raised, and I called, as did everyone else. At this point, with 7 or 8 players in, there is already 14 to 16 small bets, or, if we’re already thinking past the flop, 7 to 8 big bets.
The flop was a dream: 9-3-2 rainbow. My hand was very well disguised. yet I showed substantial power when the big blind bet out and I raised. Several people cold-called (although a couple folded. A couple more folded but I still got callers when I beet out when a jack hit on the turn, and all but one folded when a blank hit on the river. The pot was in the $250 range, very nice for a $6/$12 game.
The last hand before I left (I had already decided to leave as was a couple away from the blinds) I found AdKd and raised from early position. I had 5 or 6 cold-callers o make a substantial pot, and flopped 2 diamonds. Now I know that the odds of making a flush at that point are somewhere between 2.5-1 and 3-1. I led out and got several callers. A blank on the turn. I led out again, being aggressive, knowing that I was building a good-sized pot for the chance of winning. One player then raised and everyone else folded.
At this point, I’ve completely missed anything. I pretty sure that this player likely has top pair, and might have two pair, but other holdings are unlikely, and there’s a remote chance that he thinks I may be pushing a flush draw and is trying to raise me off the pot. (He’s not a particularly good player, however, and has been felted and bought in for more a couple of times that I’ve seen.) Yet there are about 8-10 big bets in the pot and I’ll make the nut flush at that point just slightly less then 1 out of 5 times, plus an A or a K might be good as well, giving me additional outs and making my odds better. This is an easy call.
Unfortunately, another blank comes on the river, and I check and fold when I conclude that he likely has at least top pair and probably isn’t bluffing. (There are those who say that with a pot that big, even a miss is an automatic call, but I’m pretty sure of my read against this player.) I contributed 3 small bets and 2 big bets, 21 chips, $42, from my stack on this one hand.
Yet my decisions at each point were correct. With the nut draw and that many players who will pretty consistently call, it’s correct to maximize the size of the pot by betting and betting and betting, at least, until you meet resistance. In the long run, I’ll win $150-$200 (or more) often enough to offset the times that I’ll lose $30-40, so the correct decision was made, even though the result–this time!–wasn’t one that I’d prefer.
But decisions such as this one are what keeps propelling me this year. Over the weekend, I played 5 times and I had winning sessions–good-sized wins too–4 out of the 5, for a profit of nearly $1400. I have a feeling like I’m in a bit of a zone. I’ve been doing pretty well at reading the cards of others, which has led to more good decisions. And that is the overriding goal in poker, the micro-level decisoins that will lead to the macro-level positive slope in bankroll level.