The “experts” on poker will tell you to focus on the decision, not the result. In some forums, they take it to the extreme, mandating that posts inquiring about a play not add the results because they dont’ matter. Whil eI agree with the concept, I don’t buy this extremist view.
I had a choice this Sunday morning. For the first Sunday in weeks, my wake-up goal was not to grab the Sunday papers and check out the real estate section, looking for open houses I might want to view. Instead, I could choose either go play some flag football or go hit the felt early.
I chose the latter.
My luck began as I walked in the door at 10:00am. I was asked if I wanted to play $6/$12. Of course, I answered in the affirmative and was pointed to the one empty seat and the one table going at that level.
And then, instead of getting the empty seat 9, I got my current favorite, seat 5. (It’s my current favorite right now because, as my eyesight slowly deteriorates because of cataracts, still waiting for corrective surgery, it’s the seat closest to the baord, making it easiest to see the cards there.)
To my delight, I found a near-ideal table. No one had a huge stack. There was a sprinkling of old-timers. One player I recognized and my guess (later proved true) was that he’d been there all night. The guy who moved from seat 5 to seat 9 was someone I played with just a week earlier, and I was glad to see him again. I don’t know how long he spends at the table, but he’s dead tired, literally falling asleep between hands, and he just gives his chips away. I’ll call him Tired Boy. And in seat 1 was a younger guy I’d not seen before. He had his hair greased back and I had the impression that he thought he was a good poker player, but really wasn’t, the “young gun” type. That first impression, too, turned out to be right. I’ll call him Greaser Boy.
I’d made a moderately good start with my usual patient game. And then came a challenging decision.
I was in MP and had two limpers already. I found A-4 of spades and limped. Three more players limped, including Tired Boy in the small blind. Greaser Boy, in the big blind raised.
Now, in low-limit limit games, when it is raised preflop, it is almost a guarantee that, no matter who raises, even if it is the tightest nit ever, if a player already has chips in the pot, they will call.
So even though Greaser Boy has been at times over-aggressive post-flop, and even though I’d not seen him raise preflop yet, it was not surprising to me to see the first two limpers call. I made the assumption that the rest of the limpers would call, giving me the exact same odds as before, so I called the raise as well. I was right. I figured that there was a good chance that I’ll lose 6 chips, instead of 3, but such is the price of poker in such games. (And if I hit, I’ll make a bigger profit.)
The flop came K-J-x rainbow; the K was a spade. A miss, I thought, and I figured I’d be tossing my hand. But then, a surprise. It got checked around!
The next card put a whole new spin on things. It was the 10 of spades.
Now, suddenly, Tired Boy bets out. He is so passive he won’t do that unless he has a pretty strong hand. I figure at least 2 pair. But then, it gets tricky. Greaser Boy raises. The two players next to act and I’m facing two big bets cold. This one, I have to think about.
If I were facing just a flush draw, even if it was the nut flush draw, I think my action would be pretty clear: fold. But the fact that the turn spade is also a 10 gies me pause. I have, I realize, 4 extra outs, the 4 queens that would give me a straight.
Now I’m not good enough to do the math that quickly in my head, although I did realize that the math had changed from the typical. So let’s look at it now.
Normally, with a flush draw with one card left to come, there are 9 cards left in the deck that would make the flush and 46 unseen cards, or about 5-1 against. Here however, 9 cards make the flush and the remaining 3 non-spade queens make the straight. 12 cards to make my hand, or less then 4-1 against.
Seven people called preflop, so there were 14 small bets, or 7 big bets. Add the 3 big bets so far, and I have to call 2 big bets for a chance to win 5, plus a good chance that Tired Boy will call as well.
So from a theoretical point, a call is right. However there are also two more questions to ask: Are any of my outs tainted, and am I calling for a split pot. As it turns out, the answers to these questions are yes and yes.
As it turns out, Tired Boy had, or so he claimed, a straight on the turn, and Greaser Boy showed he hit his set of kings on the flop and was slowplaying them. So the 4 queens would indeed have given me only half the pot, and if one of the two spades hit that also paired the board, my made flush would have lost to a full house.
So I did call, but the tainted outs made even the implied odds a much closer call than it seemed.
The river brought the 6 of spades, the best and safest card for me.
And here’s why results matter in discussions such as these. Tired Boy, while a poor, loose, and emotional chip spewer was at least awake and smart enough to recognize the 3 spades on the board, and even with a straight, he checked. Greaser Boy, OTOH, bet out. Being pretty sure that Tired Boy would fold whether I called or raised, so I raised. Tired Boy did indeed fold, but Greaser Boy, too proud of his big set, called, snagging me one more big bet.
It’s not important that I made my hand. It’s important to understand that so many of these types of players, when you do make it on marginal calls, will pay you off and make such calls less marginal and to some extent in your favor. If that’s the case, be more inclind to call if the marginal call is drawing to a big hand.